Price hike favours ‘no-nonsense’ wheats

GROWERS may need to review wheat variety selections for the coming season after grain prices soared by one third in a single month.

Locking into higher prices now means that ‘no-nonsense’ feed types could be just as profitable as milling wheats, according to variety consultant Mike Jeffes.

With wheat at £100/t, Mr Jeffes believes growers will need to secure an extra £13/t in milling premium to cover extra N use and to make up for a 10% yield-fall compared to the feed wheat Oakley.

But milling premiums need to average more than  £20/t once the failure to reach full specification is taken into account. This can range from 90% in a bad year to less than 60%, even in a good year.

“With feed wheat at £120-130/t, the equation is even more in favour of feed wheat. Especially for those who find milling wheat production more difficult and who don’t have a ready-made market on their doorstep.”

Mr Jeffes suggests that those looking at feed wheats could start with Oakley, which has given remarkably consistent very high yields over the last three seasons on farm.

“It’s weak score for yellow rust appears to be manageable on a broad acre basis, especially if fluquinconazole based seed treatments such as Epona or Galmano are used, and many see little reason to switch away from it for next season.”

A potential partner will be Conqueror, which like Oakley is also midge resistant.  A similar wheat with better yellow rust resistance, it yields highest on light soils and is easily the best yielder in late drilled situations after beet or potatoes.

In the second wheat slot, Mr Jeffes suggests three hard feed wheats should fit the bill. J B Diego is a frontrunner. Taller and slightly earlier than Oakley, it produces a better grain sample. Then, from late September, Duxford comes into the frame.

“Finally, don’t ignore the short, stiff variety Grafton as a second wheat,” says Mr Jeffes. “Being as early as Cordiale to mature, Grafton also makes an excellent choice as a rape entry, and will yield at the same high level as the other two.”

Group 4 soft wheats could attract £4-8/t premiums for export and even some biscuit markets. Here, the midge resistant Viscount is 3% higher yielding than Alchemy and could well achieve a slightly higher premium level.

In the Group 3 sector, Claire still has some on farm support, especially in the early drilled slot, but it is some 6% lower yielding than the newly Recommended Invicta and generally doesn’t perform well as a second wheat.

For those looking at milling wheats, Group 2s require less of a premium to offset their yield deficit compared to feeds. Highest premiums will be obtained with Cordiale, which has a bombproof Hagberg, excellent specific weight and protein.

“It is well supported by the milling industry and a strong performance as second wheat, allied to its extreme earliness, make it ideal as a rape entry,” says Mr Jeffes. Panorama had a yield advantage milling demand was harder to gauge.

“It is tall, rather late but very stiff strawed with good yellow rust resistance. It may be a good choice perhaps to replace Einstein, grown as a second wheat, where its yield and quality improvement should result in a better gross margin.”

Newcomer, KWS Sterling yields like Panorama, is earlier and shorter, but very slightly weaker strawed.  Mr Jeffes suggests it would be a good first wheat.

“Sterling’s real benefit though is that it comes with a buy-back based on £12/t over feed from ADM Direct and Gleadell for harvest 2011. The maximum premium is, uniquely, triggered at 12.5% protein rather than the more normal 13%, and this should be readily achievable.”

Those looking at Group 1 wheats should view Solstice as their preferred choice, unless a worthwhile buy-back contract with Hereward was available. Gallant had slightly higher yield potential but Mr Jeffes questioned its reliability.