Buoyant beef prices forecast to remain throughout 2025

• Deadweight prices reach record highs

• Domestic production expected to fall

• Tighter supplies meet higher demand

Beef prices are expected to remain firm this year – although imports are expected to rise to compensate for a fall in domestic production.

UK beef production is expected to decline by 5% year-on-year to 885,000 tonnes in 2025, according to the latest figures from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board. At the same time, beef consumption is forecast to grow by 1%.

Famgate beef prices have reached record highs in recent weeks. The average all-prime price reached 620p/kg during the week ending 13 February – an increase of 15p on the previous week and 125p higher than the same time last year.

The drop in UK production follows a sustained reduction in cattle numbers due to a combination of factors – including underlying business profitability and the phase-out of direct payments.

Prime cattle availability is forecast to decline, with a 6% drop in prime cattle slaughter to 1.99 million head. Reductions in cattle supply are also expected to continue into 2026, following trends in calf registrations in previous years.

Supply constraint

AHDB red meat analyst Hannah Clarke said: “The beef sector is entering a period of significant supply constraint – which is expected to support cattle prices throughout the year.”

Beef mince is expected to perform strongly in the retail sector. But price sensitivity to more expensive cuts and consumer choice will play a pivotal role in determining overall carcase values, says the AHDB.

Having said that, consumer concern about ultra-processed foods is expected to fuel demand for fresh, primary beef cuts over processed products. Some 90% of consumers believe that diet is important in contributing to their overall health.

Overall, consumer demand for beef is forecast to grow by 1% year-on-year. While that is good for producers, on the trade front, UK beef imports are expected to rise by 12% to compensate for lower domestic production.

Imports

Imports from Ireland, the UK’s largest supplier, are likely to see the most significant increase. And the AHDB expects beef exports to fall by 7% in 2025, pressured by supply constraints after strong growth in 2024.

Farmgate cattle prices are expected to be supported, with reduced supply both domestically and globally likely to drive competition for beef cattle – and retailers continuing to promote  beef.

“The supply chain will need to focus on navigating the challenges of supply constraints while maintaining product quality,” said Ms Clarke.

“Communication around the nutritional benefits of beef, as well as continued emphasis on sustainability and animal welfare, will help to secure long-term consumer trust and demand for beef.

“As the industry heads through 2025, the UK beef sector will need to stay agile in responding to market shifts, with a focus on driving efficiencies and engaging consumers through compelling messaging and promotions.”

Scheme helps reduce lamb losses

Farmers can ask their vet to blood test sheep for exposure to toxoplasmosis and enzootic abortion – thanks to the 2024 FlockCheck scheme.

Launched by MSD Animal Health, the scheme opened last month, with the EAE diagnostic phase starting on 1 April. The subsidised service, which helps identify possible reasons for early lamb losses, closes at the end of June.

Biggest factors

Ewe reproductive failure, neonatal lamb disease and mortality are the three biggest factors limiting better flock productivity – with toxoplasmosis and enzootic abortion significant causes of these unwanted flock heath issues.

Consequently, sheep farmers who find that more than 2% of their flock is barren or aborting this lambing season are being encouraged to contact their vet to take advantage of the FlockCheck diagnostic scheme.

More than 30% of GB sheep flocks don’t know their barren ewe rate or are reporting a figure greater than 5% after lambing, said MSD Animal Health veterinary adviser Kat Baxter-Smith. “This is particularly concerning.”

Sheep producers can take advantage of the FlockCheck scheme by asking their vet to take blood samples from six to eight aborted, unvaccinated ewes – or from barren ewes or ones that have produced weakly lambs.

Results help vets and farmer make more informed decisions about appropriate flock health measures, says MSD.