More wheat is being sold forward as growers try to mitigate market uncertainty and lower commodity prices.
Farmers are continuing to turn to forward-selling as grain market pressures persist, says the latest report from the Hectare Trading platform. It follows an increasing intent by farmers to sell crops forward over the harvest period.
Only 25.1% of wheat sales have been offered for immediate movement since the start of July, compared to 44.7% over the same period last year. Some 14.8% of sales have been for 5-10 months forward, compared to just 3.4% a year ago.
Pre-drilling sales
Similarly, for wheat sales agreed, only 50.0% have been for immediate movement compared to 79.0% a year ago, again with an increasing proportion of sales for forward months, says the trading platform.
Hectare Trading has also seen farmers selling their 2026 crop before the seed is even in the ground. The last time UK farmers sold the following year’s harvest at such an early stage was in 2022 – amid high prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
By contrast, for the past year, prices have been on a slow decline. The average Hectare Trading price for feed wheat in the Midlands has weakened from £184/t in August 2024 to £165/t in August 2025, dipping as low as £161/t in May.
Ex-farm and futures
In the Midlands, the ex-farm basis – the difference between the regional ex-farm price and the futures price – for feed wheat typically lags the futures through the second half of the year, reaching parity only towards the expiry of the November contract.
This year spot prices moved to parity sooner than usual. Tracking the seven-day moving average, feed wheat in the Midlands was trading at +£0.23/t relative to the futures price in mid-September compared to -£5.74/t at the same stage last year.
“This harvest has been extremely challenging for many growers, with considerable variability in yields across the country – within regions and even farms,” says the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board.
Profitability
“Even where yields have been above expectations, price declines throughout the course of the year will have a significant impact on profitability and cash flow for arable farms. For those recording low yields, the situation looks even more challenging.”
The wheat harvest arguably showed the greatest variability of all the major cereal crops, says the AHDB. Significant variation meant it was difficult for any summary to reflect all individual farm circumstances.
“While some farms have performed notably well, a large number have also had some of the worst years on recent record,” it said.
Some 26% of the farms in this survey are down on yield by 10% or more against their five-year average. The lowest reported during the survey is a 21% decline against the farms’ five-year average wheat yield.
European harvest better than expected
Final figures for Europe’s 2025 cereal harvest are likely to be better than expected – despite the challenges faced by many farmers.
The latest forecast from European trade association Coceral suggests a 306.8 million tonne grain crop for the EU and UK. This is significantly higher than the 300.7Mt projected in June and the 279.1Mt harvested last year.
Favourable weather
Wheat production is forecast at 147.4Mt compared to 143.1Mt forecast in June and 125.6Mt t last year. Upward revisions have been mainly made for France, Germany, Poland, and south-east Europe due to favourable weather and yields.
This year’s wheat crop is the highest and the barley crop the second highest in 10 years. Barley production for the EU27+UK is forecast at 63.8Mt, up from the previous forecast of 59.2Mt and from the 57.5Mt reached in 2024.
The rapeseed crop is estimated at 21.6Mt – well above the 20.0Mt forecast in June and almost 4Mt higher than the 17.9Mt which was achieved last year.