Wheat area rises but still below average

• Mixed prospects for UK cereals area

• Wheat area recovery remains way off

• Growers shun flagship green scheme

More wheat has been drilled this autumn – but the projected area for 2025 still lags behind the five-year average, suggest the latest figures.

A 5.4% increase takes the expected UK wheat area to 1.613m ha for harvest 2025. But is still below the 2019-2023 average of 1.705m ha. Winter and spring barley and oilseed rape areas are seen to be falling.

The annual Early Bird Survey was commissioned by the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB). It is the first indication of next summer’s likely cereal harvest – and was carried out following a wet start to autumn.

Other crops

The survey suggests the area of oats drilled has risen by a modest 3.5%. At 189,000ha, this puts projected area for harvest 2025 slightly above the five-year average but below 2021’s 200,000ha.

The winter barley area is estimated to have fallen by just under 1%, potentially limited by the wet conditions in England in September. Spring barley looks like it will fall by 13%, after rising sharply in 2024.

The spring barley projection at 704,000ha would still be above 2022 and 2023 – but with the winter barley area edging lower again, the fall in spring barley would mean the smallest UK area since 2014 at 1.084m ha.

If this area is confirmed and without above-average yields in 2025, UK barley production could fall below 2024’s provisional 7.2 Mt crop, said AHDB cereals and oilseeds senior analyst Helen Plant.

Challenging weather

“The first insight into 2025 cropping patterns shows a mixed picture. While winter cropping has historically usually strongly rebounded the year after a wet autumn, for example in 2021, that doesn’t seem to be the case for harvest 2025.

“Challenging weather in some areas, plus the fallout from the 2024 harvest on profitability seems to have limited the rebounds. This places extra focus on yield potential. Industry will need to monitor crop conditions closely.

A 17% decline in the oilseed rape planted area is forecast.

If confirmed, this is its lowest area in the UK for 42 years. The final area could be even lower depending on damage from pests, particularly cabbage stem flea beetles, and weather conditions.

The survey also points to a further rise (+51%) in uncropped arable land from 2024’s already high level. But it is unclear if this reflects decisions still to be made or land intended for agri-environmental schemes in England.

Defra data shows only an additional 20000ha were entered into Sustainable Farming Incentive (SFI) options that take grass and arable land out of production. Defra’s next SFI figures are due to be published in February.