Pork production stability forecast for year ahead

• Improvements in pig productivity

• Focus on consumer and welfare

• Food service sector opportunities

UK pork production is expected to remain steady in 2025, suggests the latest forecast from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board.

Limited growth in breeding herd numbers and continued pressure on export markets will be offset by demand from a thriving foodservice sector and consumers looking for convenient, affordable cuts of pork, it says.

AHDB senior livestock analyst Freya Shuttleworth said: “While the pork market faces challenges such as fluctuating export demand and rising geopolitical uncertainties, we are seeing signs of resilience.”

Reason for optimism

Continued growth of the foodservice sector and increasing consumer interest in value-driven cuts of pork were reason for optimism, said Ms Shuttleworth.

“The industry’s focus must remain on meeting the evolving needs of consumers while maintaining high standards of welfare and sustainability.”

UK pork production is forecast to remain stable in 2025, with clean pig slaughter volumes reaching about10.32 million head, a slight decrease of 0.1% compared to 2024.

Average carcase weights are expected to remain at around 90kg, in line with performance from previous years. But productivity improvements are still a driving force in the sector.

Breeding herd

The size of the UK breeding herd is forecast to rise by 1% to 330,000 head by June 2025 and long-term growth is expected to remain limited, with the herd expected to return to 2023 levels by 2027.

But the AHDB quarterly estimated cost of production has seen a slight decrease over the past year, contributing to positive industry sentiment and net margins of £15 per head during 2024.

Producer confidence

That said, producer confidence continues to be impacted by ongoing uncertainty. This includes fluctuating input costs and other economic challenges, with producers continuing to exit the industry.

The outlook for trade in 2025 is mixed, with geopolitical tensions and market volatility continuing to affect UK exports.

Trading partners

The EU remains the UK’s most significant trading partner, with over 99% of UK pig meat imports and over 42% of exports coming from the region. But demand from the EU is expected to decrease as EU consumption weakens.

Despite these challenges, there are brighter prospects in markets like southeast Asia, where African Swine Fever (ASF) has impacted local pork production.

The relisting of two UK processing sites for China and the potential for stronger trade ties with countries like South Korea could help offset weaker demand from traditional markets closer to home, say AHDB analysts.

China and South-east Asia continue to be huge consumers of pork.

Decent prospects for pork in 2025

Food service growth – particularly in dining out and on-the-go meal occasions, are a valuable opportunity for pork producers, says the AHDB.

Consumers are seeking affordable, convenient meals, with pork well-suited to quick, tasty options, says AHDB consumer insight manager Vanessa Adamson.

“As we continue to face economic pressures, promoting the nutritional benefits and versatility of pork will be key in encouraging consumers to incorporate more pork into their meals.”.

Opportunities

Interest in affordable meals means there are significant opportunities to expand pork consumption – particularly through convenient products like sausages, burgers, and pre-prepared cuts, adds Ms Adamson.

To enhance the outlook for pork consumption in 2025, the AHDB says industry players should focus on communicating the health benefits of pork, such as its rich vitamin and protein content.

Versatile recipes, batch cooking ideas, and affordable meal options will all help capture consumer interest, it says. Premium pork should be marketed to appeal to those seeking high-quality, cost-effective options.

In response to these challenges and opportunities, AHDB is launching its ‘Love Pork’ campaign and other marketing activities throughout 2025 to encourage increased consumer engagement with pork.