Good management key to arable profitability

Cereal management will be increasingly important this season amid rising costs, volatile markets and unpredictable weather.

That was a key message at last month’s annual technical agronomy conference, held by the Association of Independent Crop Consultants at Whittlebury Hall, Towcester, in Northamptonshire.

Arable farming faces a perfect storm of flatlining yields, high input costs, reduced direct support, and exposure to global commodity markets over which growers have little control, said Dan Matthews, an agronomist with Ceres Rural.

“Profitability must come first. Without profitability, sustainability is not achievable,” said Mr Matthews. “The challenge for arable businesses today is not just about yield, but managing volatility, risk, and margins far more precisely than in the past.”

Inputs and yield

Drawing on long-term benchmarking and performance data, Mr Matthews said there was no strong correlation between expenditure on variable inputs and grain yield. Instead, yield and profitability were primarily driven by decisions at a field and crop level.

Independent agronomy was central to this process, said Mr Matthews. It enabled growers to align inputs with real crop potential rather than historic averages, flex to seasonal conditions, and avoid over-investment driven by fear rather than evidence.

In an environment where yield potential can deteriorate rapidly, particularly in challenging seasons, the financial impact of these decisions has never been greater.

Analysis of wheat crops across a broad sample of Ceres Rural farms suggests higher yields were not simply the result of higher spend, but of better targeting of sprays and fertiliser in response to disease pressure and yield potential.

In many cases, relatively small reductions in input costs, when combined with sound crop management, delivered double-digit percentage improvements in profitability.

Mr Matthews highlighted the structural challenges facing UK arable farming. On a global comparison, the UK has some of the highest variable costs of wheat production, driven by climate, pest and disease pressure, and regulatory constraints.

With inflation eroding returns and input prices remaining stubbornly elevated, scrutiny of cost and performance is now essential rather than optional. “In this environment, independent advice becomes more valuable, not less,” Mr Matthews told delegates.

Looking ahead, the role of the independent agronomist would continue to grow as farming systems adapted to increasing volatility.

“The margin for error is smaller, and every decision carries more weight,” he said.

Resilient systems

Mr Matthews emphasised the need to build systems which are resilient to extreme seasons rather than average years. Growers should strengthen soils and rotations to underpin reliable yields, he said. They should also make greater use of benchmarking, data, and peer-to-peer learning.

The value of technology lay in evidence-based application rather than innovation for its own sake. Independent agronomy provides the critical filter between innovation and on-farm decision-making.

“Evidence from long-term data is clear. Yield is a function of management, not inputs alone. Independent agronomy plays a vital role in helping arable businesses invest wisely, manage risk, and remain profitable in an increasingly uncertain world.”