Plan grain marketing now for the year ahead

Winter is the perfect time to take stock when it comes to grain marketing. UK arable farmers have been weighing the impact of another harsh year of low prices and narrowing margins – and making plans for a potentially difficult year ahead.

For farmers carrying unsold grain from harvest 2025, this is time to be clear on an exit strategy. Meanwhile, as winter crops have become established, yield expectations are revised and many farmers are forward-selling a proportion of their new crop now to reduce market risk.

Profitability

Arable farmers struggled throughout 2025 due to consistently low grain prices. Against a backdrop of inflation and rising input costs, spot feed wheat ex-farm prices dipped to a low of £157.02/t in East Anglia and the south of England on 30 May, based on sales figures from Hectare Trading.

After a brief harvest rally, the moving averages drifted downwards again into the autumn, and some of the lowest levels of the year were seen in late December. Following a year of variable yields and prolonged uncertainty on government subsidies, farmers are now faced with a bleak picture.

Cost of living

The UK cost-of-living crisis has certainly not been driven by grain producers, as the prices farmers receive for their crop have become increasingly detached from consumer food prices. For example, since November 2023, milling wheat prices in East Anglia and southern England have fallen by 32%. This compares to a 5.1% rise in the price of loaf of white bread over the same period.

Strategic selling

Faced with low prices, farmers largely refrained from selling their 2025 crop forward before harvest. With few signs of improvement in the market, they have looked to forward-selling to take advantage of carry.

Hectare Trading’s detailed price analysis shows that regional dynamics of supply and demand can differ markedly from traditional grain benchmarks, offering significant price opportunities for strategic sellers.

For example, on 19 June 2025, spot feed wheat ex-farm was trading on Hectare Trading at £176.72/t in the South West, £8.28t lower than the price of the nearest ICE feed wheat contract. On 21 November, it was trading at £169.73/t, a premium over the nearest ICE feed wheat contract of £6.73/t..

Regional premiums

Comparable swings against the futures were seen in the West Midlands and north of England over the course of last year, with all three regions trading at a premium to the nearest futures contract in the fourth quarter.

While benchmark prices have been chronically weighed down by ample supplies at national and global levels heading into 2026, this indicates that price movements regionally can behave very differently – allowing cash values to outperform the futures even in a broadly bearish market.

To capture these regional pockets of higher demand, farmers have had to innovate in their selling practices. We’ve seen more farmers turn to Hectare Trading as an alternative to their usual grain marketing approach. Since the start of 2024, farmers selling feed wheat on Hectare Trading have beaten the market average – the comparable AHDB corn returns price – for 77.7% of the time.

January can be a challenging month for grain sellers. It is easy to stay anchored to a previous year’s prices, particularly if selling now means accepting a loss on paper.

Old crop

For farmers holding old crop, sitting tight and waiting for a rally is still a decision – and often expensive once storage and opportunity costs are taken into account. There are strong fundamental reasons why grain prices remain subdued in early 2026 – predominantly a global abundance of supply – and no clear signals point to a spring rally.

At Hectare Trading, we recommend that old crop decisions should not contaminate new crop thinking. Each crop faces different market conditions and should serve different strategic goals within each farming business. For many farms, the pragmatic approach in a fl at market may be to sell some tonnage now, even if the price feels disappointing, as a way to actively secure cash flow and reduce exposure to further price drops.

Andrew Huxham is an arable farmer and co-founder of Hectare Trading. For more information, please visit wearehectare.com